Thursday, October 25, 2007

Crunch the Numbers - How Much Will Taco Bell Pay for Their Two Minute Commercial?


Pat Lackey links to PostmanR, who links to Darren Rovell.

I’m going to assume that about 15 percent of the country will be aware of the promotion. That means that about 45 million people know about the promotion. I’d say that 30 percent of those people will know that a stolen base actually occurred and that they can redeem their free taco at some point. That means that 13.5 million people will be aware that a free taco is available.

Then I think that, out of those people, five percent will remember that the free taco needed to be redeemed a week later. That’s 675,000 people....

The taco has to be redeemed between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. local time on Oct. 30...that’s a Tuesday. Since most people are at work during those hours, I’d say 5 percent of those people actually go and redeem a taco during a non-lunch hour.

For its part, Taco Bell spokesman Rob Poetsch says that the 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. time frame is done so that each franchisee can be well mobilized to give away that free taco, but it obviously reduces the number of people that can come and collect.

How many people do I predict will redeem a free taco? 33,750 people. Or .01 percent of America. That’s got to be one of the reasons why Taco Bell isn’t taking out insurance. If my numbers are right, that’s only $26,000 in retail costs being exposed (it’s 77 cents a taco) and probably closer to $4,000 on gross costs.

I betcha that a two minute commercial on Fox costs a lot more than $4,000. And Taco Bell got the time for free.



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