State a Range and Hope You Hit the Middle

It's good to take advantage of hindsight and laugh at the poor ignorant fools that we were just a year ago. But Lisa Vaas seems to have hit the target in her August 2006 guesses about the release of Oracle Database 11g.

Don Burleson did this crazy little trend graph based on previous major releases and the time that elapses between them to come up with the average number of years between releases being 3.2. That makes it April 2007 for 11g, but I agree with Don in thinking the R-Shores crowd would aim to make a splash at the fall Oracle OpenWorld 2007.

But the Don Burleson source was written back in December 2005:

With 2006 approaching fast, some Oracle experts are already speculating about the next new release of Oracle. If we look historically, we will be "due" for a new release of the Oracle database in early 2007, in just 15 months....

This was based on an average of 3.2 years between releases, using data going back to Oracle6. Burleson went on to say:

Based on a trend graph, Oracle 11g (or whatever it's new name may be) is due about April 2007, but it most likely coincide with Oracle OpenWorld 2007, held in the fall of 2007 (usually in San Francisco)....

Interestingly enough, it's possible to predict when Oracle Database releases will occur, but is there any valid way to predict when Oracle OpenWorld will actually take place? Presumably this is affected by the availability of the Moscone Center and the hotels, but it's interesting to note that someone writing in 2005 could not say when the gathering would occur two years hence.

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