Thursday, May 17, 2007

From a distant shore, a view of the 2008 election

Phil of Finland for Thought (an American living in Finland) has blogged his views on the 2008 election.

Rudy Giuliani is going to win the nomination because the conservatives in the media have already picked him as their golden boy, they know he’s the only neocon who has a shot to win the White House. I’m guessing John McCain gets second, Ron Paul third, Mitt Romney fourth (Mormon in the white house? not a chance). It really doesn’t matter because Giuliani will win the nomination in a landslide.

John Edwards will win the Democratic election, Hillary a close second, Obama a distant third. Hillary and Obama will split the minority vote and Edwards will clean up in the south. If Al Gore ever threw his hat in, he’d be a strong contender to win - but I doubt the Dems will ever allow it since they already have three strong contenders and the Republicans are very weak this term.

I can't predict the Democratic winner, but I disagreed on Giuliani.

One thing that hasn’t been acknowledged is that the primaries are dominated by the extremes of the political parties. During the primary season, it’s usually the conservative Republicans and the liberal Democrats who are motivated to go out and vote....

No New Yorker (except maybe a resurrected Douglas MacArthur) can win the Republican nomination. Romney could actually win this thing (Ron Paul may be too fringe, plus some would say he’s not a real Republican because of his capital L Libertarian history; McCain could be tarred with a liberal brush).


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